MAFSPEED SPEED RATINGS

2009-03-06T14:43:00.007Z

SPEED RATINGS

Welcome to the site. I've been a convert to speed ratings for many years. If you are interested in compiling your own ratings you can access the book 'The Only Game in Town' by clicking HERE. It explains in detail how they are calculated and how I stumbled across them and turned a lifetime of losing into profit.

Everyone who has ever had a bet will tell you that racing is bent. The book Crime Corruption & the Jockey Club looks into events between 1982 and 2006 and reveals the Jockey Clubs reaction to those events and the actions, if any, that they have taken. To read the book follow the links in the right margin. .

2009-01-30T14:41:00.002Z

SPEED RATING EXPLAINED - HOW TO PRODUCE YOUR OWN

John Train was an investor on the stock market. In his book, “The Moneymasters,” he makes the following comment when describing a successful investor. “It is sufficient to be a master of one game rather than try to learn two or three, as long as you retire to the side lines when the game you know is no longer being played.” The same principal applies in gambling. What you need to master are speed ratings and once you have done that you will realize that All Weather Racing is the only game in town.

The book Only Game in Town is reproduced in full below..

OGIT PART 1

2009-01-29T14:53:00.001Z

The book starts here when you get to the bottom of each page click older posts on the right hand side to continue.

Acknowledgements

First and foremost I must thank Nick Mordin for writing, ‘Mordin on time,’ and changing my life. Also Larry from the Ballast Sidings who donated the two carrier bags of books that set me on the right road. Learn Direct at Beeston where the patient and friendly staff taught me to switch the computer on and off. Placepot Phil, Jeff the weight and Fred the spread (what’s the red un in the next) who over the years and probably without realizing have helped me develop the ratings. A special thanks to Jon and Lynne for correcting the many mistakes and reminding me that it is a long time since I left school. And last but not least my partner Gill for putting up with my gambling through thick and thin and until recently it was very often wafer thin.

PREFACE
The original Only Game in Town was published in the summer of 2003 and explained how the author turned a lifetime of bad habits and loss into profit cumulating in a successful and profitable Winter AW season in 2002/03
A lot of changes have taken place since then. There are no longer just three tracks. Kempton opened its doors to all weather in 2005 and in 2007 Great Leighs will become the first new racecourse in Britain for eighty years. The all weather courses have been refurbished and at Wolverhampton the track widened and the surface replaced with polytrack.
All these changes have affected Standard Times so they have had to been recalculated using the results from the 2006/07 winter season. These include Kempton and are shown in appendix 2.
The standard times for the 2002/03 season in appendix one have been left in the book as a reference to the chapters on compiling figures. Another change is the grading system which used to be A-G but has now changed to 1 - 7.
Despite the changes the basic principals remain the same and the humble speed rating will continue to produce winners for those prepared to put in the time and effort required to understand them.

INTRODUCTION
After gambling on and off for the best part of twenty five years you would have expected me to know something about racing. Far from it! In fact, the only thing I had learned was that bookmakers always seemed to win and despite the odd lucky streak the punter in the long run was sure to lose. To be honest, after all those years I was no wiser than the day I started. Like everyone else I studied the form, read the spotlights at the foot of each race and looked what the tipsters fancied. At the end of the day it all boiled down to guesswork and being influenced by other peoples opinions. Fortunately, something happened that changed my whole perspective on gambling.
One day someone at work asked me if I would like some books on horse racing. A friend of his, a keen racing fan, had passed away and his collection of form books were looking for a new home. A few days later he walked into the cabin with two carrier bags. When he had gone I emptied the bags onto the table. There amongst the smartsig magazines and raceform annuals I found Beyer on Speed, Picking Winners and The Winning Horseplayer by Andrew Beyer, Against the Crowd by Alan Potts, One Hundred Hints for Better Betting by Mark Coton, and two books by Nick Mordin, Betting For a Living and Mordin on time. There were also several books on the value factor in betting and how to compile your own handicap. It took a few months to plough through them but I read them all. The book that changed my gambling life was sitting there amongst them. After reading it twice I started to compile my own speed ratings. At first I was sceptical and on more than one occasion was on the verge of giving up on them. It was so time consuming and I wasn’t sure what good they were going be to me. After all, the racing papers already printed ratings. Then one day something amazing happened, the horse that was top rated on my figures won by 9 lengths at 10/1. None of the so called experts fancied it but on the ratings it was a nailer.. The book that had brought all this about was called Mordin on Time by Nick Mordin. Suddenly someone had switched on the light.

CHAPTER ONE

SPEED RATINGS
Speed rating figures, represent a horses ability and fitness based on the times it has run. By using standard times for each track and calculating how long each horse takes to run one mile, all performances are comparable.
Speed figures have been used in America since the 50’s. Len Ragozin realized that as well as comparing one horse with another, he should be comparing each horse with itself. In other words looking at a horses past performances to ascertain how it is likely to run today. To this end he began to plot graphs of each horses career runs. These became known as the “Sheets.” He would produce a Sheet for each horse in a race and look for patterns in their past performances. Ragozin began publishing the sheets and they were seen as essential to any serious gambler.
In the early 70s, Andrew Beyer, a horseracing columnist for the Washington Post, began producing his own speed figures. He used them himself with great success, and when he introduced these figures in his book “Picking Winners”(1975) he revolutionized racetrack betting.
Unfortunately there was a down side. The betting public were becoming smart and after writing “The Winning Horse Player,” in 1983 it became harder and harder to keep ahead. By the 90s everyone used speed figures and they were available from many commercial sources. Finally in 1992 the Daily Racing Form included Beyers speed figures in past performances. The speed figure “good thing” had disappeared forever.
Fortunately that is not yet the case in this country. British punters are sceptical of speed figures. They would sooner base their selections on top trainers or jockeys, or follow horses that have won for them in the past. Some draw lines of form through a third horse that has recently run against two horses running today. Then there are long distance travellers and do not forget, Fallon would not travel all the way to Musselburgh for one ride unless it had a chance. It seems that punters in this country will use any system at all to select their horses, except for the only one that matters. The system that tells you how fit a horse is compared to its rivals, tells you the horses ideal distance and which courses it likes and more importantly the courses it doesn’t like. The system that tells you if a horse is running into form, out of form or standing still and ready for a break. Most importantly, the system that tells you how fast the horse is likely to run today. This system is based on a horses speed figures and the way they are laid out and read.
Since Nick Mordins book was published in 1996 people up and down the country have been compiling their own ratings. In recent years the effects have become obvious as more and more top rated horses open at short prices. It is no coincidence that many of the positives on the early morning exchanges are horses with high speed figures.
Fortunately at the moment punters at large have no access to accurate easy to read speed figures. Most published ratings give a horses top figure along with all the relevant details. Often however, that run was a week last pancake Tuesday and there is no indication to the horses current level of fitness. Most rank and file betting shop punters have neither the time nor the inclination to produce their own speed ratings, until they are given them on a plate, as the Daily Racing Form did in America, there will still be plenty of good things for speed figure punters to get their teeth into.

2009-01-28T08:50:00.001Z

CHAPTER TWO

SPEED FIGURES

oBelow are the mathematical procedures for finding a horses speed rating figure. There are no explanations as to why certain procedures are carried out, or how certain figures such as the grade tables are configured. It is not my intention to re-write Nick Mordins book and I strongly recommend that anyone contemplating producing their own figures purchase Mordin on Time available from Aesculus Press. The main aim of this book is what to do with the figures and how to use them. As an example I have shown the speed figures I calculated for the meeting at Lingfield on Saturday the 4th of January 2003. In column A is the race number shown in the official results published in the Raceform Update. The first thing to look for is the grade of race, 1-7 this goes in column D. Banded races are always 7.

oooooooo0000
oThe figure in column E is from the grade tables and 6.9 represents grade 6. The grade tables are shown in full below. The times are per mile.
oooo0oooooooo
The actual calculations can be broken down into five steps.
qqSTEP 1 COMPARE RACE TIME WITH STANDARD TIME :-
Next take the race winners time, in this first race the time was 3m 27.50 and deduct the standard time for the course and distance. Standard times for the All weather tracks are shown in the appendix at the back of the book. How they are compiled will be explained in chapter four. For a 2 mile race at Lingfield the standard time is 3m 14.71. The difference is 12.79 seconds. This is the difference for a 2m race so to equate the race to 1m you divide by 2 giving 6.39. This figure goes into column C. The standard times in the appendix also show the fractions you need to divide by to equate each race to 1 mile. For instance for a 6f race you would divide by .75.

00STEP 2 IS THE FIGURE + OR - :-
Next check column C against column E , if the number in C is bigger place a - in column F, if it is smaller put a +. The difference between columns C and E goes into G. After carrying out this procedure for all races the table will look like this.

qqSTEP 3 CALCULATE GOING ALLOWANCE :-
You now need to weed out any slow or exceptional fast times. So in column G put a line through the two highest and two lowest figures. Add up the four remaining numbers and divide by four. This will give you the going allowance for the track that day. If it is a seven race card discard the two highest and two lowest leaving three, and for a six race card the highest and lowest leaving four. You will usually find the figures in G are either all + or all - but sometimes they are mixed. In the above example, after weeding out the unwanted figures you are left with -.45, +.32, -1.22, and -1.04. These add up to -2.39, divide by four and you are left with a going allowance of -.60

STEP 4 CALCULATE WINNERS SPEED FIGURE :-
To arrive at a speed figure for each winner deduct or add (in this case deduct) the going allowance from the figure in column C, multiply by five and take the result away from a hundred. This is the speed rating for the winning horse and goes in column B. The final table is shown below.

STEP 5 THE REST OF THE RUNNERS :-
After allocating a figure for each winner you need to deal with the rest of the runners. First of all write the speed figure next to each winner in the Raceform Update. Then simply divide the number of lengths each horse trailed the winner by the race distance, (the figure in brackets in the standard times appendix), and deduct it from the winners figure. This seemed very complicated and time consuming when I first started the figures so I divided each race distance by all margins up to 10 lengths and produced the chart on the following page. Once I had this chart there were no calculations to make, it was a simple matter of lining up the lengths beaten with the race distance to find the required figure. If the race you were looking at was 1m4f and the second placed horse was beaten 6 lengths then you need to take 4 points off the winners rating.

So in a nut shell that is how the figures are produced. There is no secret formula and no mislaid document found in a dusty trunk just simple mathematics. You now have a speed figure for each horse so what do you do with them. In Mordin on Time he suggests simply keeping them in the weekly supplement or in an exercise book. Unfortunately if you keep records this way retrieving them becomes a nightmare. The Lingfield meeting we have just been looking at involved 107 horses, and during the 2002/03 winter season over 3000 horses ran on the all weather. In chapter five I will explain how I overcame this problem.

2009-01-27T08:40:00.002Z

0CHAPTER THREE

JUMPS / TURF OR ALL WEATHER

00Before deciding the best way to store and retrieve the figures, you must first decide which figures you are going to work with. There are 42 jump courses and 38 flat including the 3 all weather circuits. They are all different shapes and sizes, some undulating like Brighton others flat like York. There are those with sharp bends like Chester and Wolverhampton and wide open galloping courses like Newmarket. There are right hand courses and left hand courses. Straight courses and round courses. There are long run ins and short run ins. The differences are endless. All these factors affect a horses performance.
Take jump racing first, the problem with allocating speed ratings are as follows :-
The shortest races are 2m and many are 3m and upwards. Small fields and tactical races often result in slow times. This in turn leads to incomparable speed figures. Quite often before a race has finished you will see jockeys pulling horses up and walking to the line. You could argue the same happens on the flat, but not to the same extent. Fences can be omitted because of unsafe conditions or dolled off after a bad fall. When the ground gets churned up running rails are often moved altering the distance of the race. Finally on the occasions when your calculations are correct, there is suddenly an unseated rider, your horse is brought down or the worst scenario of all, it falls at the last when ten lengths clear.

00It was for these reasons that I decided to leave the jumps alone and concentrate on the flat. At the beginning of the season things were fine with only one meeting a day and perhaps two on Saturdays, but as the season progressed there were more and more. Two meetings an afternoon, night racing three times a week and then Sunday racing, not to mention Bank Holidays. I soon got bogged down with the figures and reached a stage were I was so busy crunching numbers I didn’t have time to do anything with them. To compile ratings for every horse running in 24-28 meetings a week is a full time job and them some. I ended up that far behind, the figures were worse than useless.
00Eventually, I gave up the ghost and got a late booking for Calla Millor. While I was away I re-read my bible Mordin on Time and a book by John Train on the stock market. John Train was a successful stock market investor and in his book, The Moneymasters, he makes the following comment when describing a successful investor. “ It is sufficient to be a master of one game rather than try to learn two or three, as long as you retire to the sidelines when the game you know is no longer being played.” I immediately realized that the same principal applied to gambling. I decided that I would leave the turf alone and using the ratings, concentrate on the all weather.

00I had learned from past experience that trying to relate all weather speed figures to turf was futile as few horses ran equally as well on both. Now I had decided to concentrate solely on the all weather I could see another problem looming. During the back end of the turf season a lot of horses would be alternating between the two surfaces . Some trainers would be tempted to keep ‘in form’ horses running after the turf season had finished and try to pick up a few races on the sand.. Gambling in these type of races can only lead to the poor house. I figured that this problem would persist until the end of November, and that after that, we would be left with a hard core of winter all weather horses. By the end of February and beginning of March trainers would have started to enter their turf horses on the all weather to get them revved up for the flat season. So the ratings should be at their best between December and February, roughly 10-12 weeks. This would be the time for some serious gambling. I have to laugh when I hear some of the comments on the Racing Channel. One of them goes something like this. “The trouble with the all weather is, the same horses race against each other week in and week out. They just seem to take it in turns winning.” Well horses are continually running in and out of form and if some horses deteriorate and others improve then its obvious that you are going to end up with different winners. The very fact that you have this group of horses running regularly on the same surface provides an ideal opportunity to make money. As long as you have the ratings.

OGIT PART 2

2009-01-26T08:30:00.003Z

CHAPTER FOUR

STANDARD TIMES

Being terrified of flying it is always a relief to kneel and kiss the tarmac at East Midlands Airport. The euphoria of still being alive is usually short lived. The realization that your holiday has ended and an English winter is about to begin can be quite sobering. However, on this occasion I was not at all depressed. In fact, quite the opposite. Having developed a strategy for the winter all weather season I could not wait to get started.
From the end of September I started to produce speed ratings for the three all weather tracks. There were only a couple of meetings a week but I wanted to get six to eight weeks figures before the turf season finished and the winter all weather took over in November. One problem that cropped up almost immediately was Lingfield Park. All weather racing in Britain first began at Lingfield in 1989. After experiencing problems in early 2001, Arena Leisure decided to lay a new polytrack surface at a cost of 2.8 million pounds. The surface had previously been equitrack and it was equitrack that my standard times were based on. That wasn’t all, a few months earlier Arena Leisure had replaced the worn out surface at Wolverhampton. It took three weeks to lay 7,000 tons of new fibresand at a cost of £300,000. A year earlier in August 2000 extensive refurbishment had also been carried out at Southwell. I realized I would have to compile new standard times for all three tracks.
At Lingfield Park the first meeting on the new polytrack surface had taken place on the 13th November 2001, and so I started my calculations from there. The first race run over 6f was won by Last Exhibit in a time of 1m12.63. This was a grade D race. The grade table shows D as 6.3, six furlongs is .75 of a mile so multiply the 6.3 by .75. This gives you 4.72 which is deducted from 1m12.63 leaving 1m07.91. This calculation was carried out for all 6f races on the new surface, and resulted in 29 figures. Five figures were lower than 1m07secs and 5 were higher than 1m08secs. These figures were discarded. This left the 19 figures below laid out from fastest to slowest.
1.07.14 / 1.07.14 / 1.07.17 / 1.07.25 / 1.07.26 / 1.07.30 / 1.07.35 / 1.07.63 / 1.07.63 / 1.07.65 / 1.07.65 / 1.07.80 / 1.07.81 / 1.07.82 / 1.07.87 / 1.07.88 / 1.07.90 / 1.07.90 / 1.07.91.
Finally add the three middle most or median figures together and divide by three. These figures are shown in red. This gives us 1m07.64. This is the standard time for a six furlong race at Lingfield. A full list of standard times can be found in the appendix.

2009-01-25T08:25:00.002Z

CHAPTER FIVE

.
SPEED FIGURE STORAGE AND RETRIEVAL

As I mentioned earlier, retrieving speed figures from the weekly results supplement or from exercise books can be a nightmare.
I know this from experience because that is how I started keeping them. Finding previous figures for a sixteen runner race and copying them out could take hours. After a few weeks I started to keep the figures on a database. Being computer illiterate I managed to mislay the figures on several occasions only to find them somewhere else later. The final straw came when they were lost altogether after the computer crashed. I decided to do something about it and enrolled on a computer course with Learn Direct.
During a lifetime of hesitation and indecision I had not made too many good moves. This was certainly one of the best. In less than a week, after completing a database course I could use ‘sort records’ to keep the file in alphabetical order, ‘find’ to locate each horse and ‘show marked records’ so I could view only the horses I needed for a race. I was also able to copy and paste these horses to other pages and was soon compiling race cards for entire meetings.
At this stage I was still having to use the results supplement to find out which course and over which distance each figure had been earned. I realized I could save all this time by coupling this information to the speed figure, so I added S for Southwell, W for Wolverhampton and L for Lingfield. After these abbreviations came the distance but limited to three digits to save space. So at Wolver for instance, races shown as 1M are in fact IM100yds and races over 1M 6f 166yds are shown as 1M7. Finally winners were identified by placing an * after the speed figure. A horse that had earned a rating of 70 when winning at Wolver over 7f would be shown as 70*W 7F. With all these improvements in place and my new found computer knowledge I could now run off a seven race card in less than half an hour.

You have now seen where the figures come from and how to store and retrieve them. It is now time to move on and see what they look like. Below are the ratings for runners in the 2003 Winter Derby. Fourteen runners went to post but only eight had run on the all weather since September.

Parasol was top rated last time out and opened at 7/2 before going off 5/2jf with Kirovski. Dettori made all on Parasol quickening 3f out to go 3l clear and just held on from Adiemus who was held up and ran on well inside the last. Parasol posted a rating of 85 and a track record for the new polytrack surface.

1. PARASOL 5/2 JF
2. ADIEMUS 11/4
3. GOBLET OF FIRE 25/1

2009-01-24T08:20:00.000Z

CHAPTER SIX

PATTERNS IN THE SAND

So how can yesterday’s speed figures help you locate tomorrows winners?
When you examine a horse’s speed ratings it is surprising what they can tell you. In the following examples, as in the rest of the book, the horses last run is on the left. The easiest thing to spot are horses who show a steady improvement :-

SHALBEBLUE 0000II65 S 1M3 II60 S 1M4 III57 S 1M30044 W 1M4
WINDY BRITAIN00I72 L 1M2 II69 W 1M1 II68 W 1M1II 67 L 1M2
WOODSMOKE 000.062 W 6F III61 W 5F IIII51 W 6F IIII43 W 5F

And those who show a steady decline:-

PRIVATE SEAL0059 L 1M2 OI60 L 1M2 0063 L 1M2 064 L 1M4
TINKS MAN 000049 S 6F 00III53 S 6F 0I0II57 W 5FIIII62 W 6F

Some horses show a liking for a certain distance or a certain track :-

BLONDE EN BLONDE I73 W 7F0I66*S 6F II066*W 6F050 L 5F
BYO000000000000000067 L 5F 0I71 L 5F IIIO71 W 5F 071 L 5F
EYECATCHER000000I77 L 7F 0I75 L 7F 0I0I76*L 7F O71 L 7F
HIGH FINANCE000II058 W 7F 064*L 1M 0II64 L 1M 064 L 7F

BLONDE EN BLONDE seems to like the fibresand at Southwell and Wolver but is not so keen on Lingfields polytrack. BYO seems to be equally at home on either surface and would probably handle 5f at Southwell. EYECATCHER is a solid 7f performer at Lingfield, while HIGH FINANCE is equally consistent but at a lower level.

PADDYWACK077 W 5F 0 33 S 6F 0I049 S 5F0I 62 S 5F OI76*W 5F0
PERFIDIOUS I76 L 1M2 I62 W 1M1I 76 L 1M 068 W 1M1 I70 L 1M2

PADDYWACK has produced his two biggest figures over 5f at Wolver but his Southwell performances are not much to write home about.
PERFIDIOUS is not so keen on Wolver and seems to prefer 1m2f at Lingfield.

REDOUBTABLE032 S 6F 0I60 W 7F 0I55 W 6F O37 S 7F 0I63 W 6F
RIVER DAYS I0072*W 5F I46 S 5F 0I065 L 6F 0I72*W 5F I72 L 5F 0
SIENA STAR I069 L 1M2 I76 L 1M2 I61 L 1M4 I70 L 1M2 I76 L 1M2 I

REDOUBTABLE has put in two woeful performances at Southwell, while RIVER DAYS is a 5f specialist at both Wolver and Lingfield. SIENA STAR is another horse that goes well over 1m2f at Lingfield, but look what happened when they tried him at 1m4f.
While the examples above are simple and easy to spot other patterns are more complex. Compared to America all weather racing in this country is still in its infancy, so what can the Americans teach us about speed ratings and the patterns that have emerged? Several theories have emerged over the years I checked to see if there were comparisons in our own figures. Without doubt the most famous is the ‘bounce’ so that is where I started.

BOUNCE
This is where a horse runs an exceptionally high figure or in a particularly hard race. On its next appearance the chances are it will run a poor race with a low speed figure. The horse is said to have bounced. I decided to check last seasons speed figures and see if horses bounce in this country. My database contained speed ratings for all horses that had run on the all weather between the beginning of October 2002 and the end of May 2003. This provided a sample of 3554 horses over a period of 8 months. I looked for horses who may have ‘bounced.’ This produced the following examples.

POSSIBLE EXAMPLES OF BOUNCE

COOLBYPOOL00 58 L 1M2 074*W 1M1o 68*W 1M1 060 W 7F
DENS JOY 00000 i52 S 1M iiiii0D W 1M1 i76 W 1M1 i75*W 1M1 MAKTAVISH 0iii061 S 5F 0oii68*S 5F000 43 S 5F 000ii74 W 5F

I have used the word possible because there is reasonable doubt about each horses apparent bounce.
Take COOLBYTHEPOOL for instance, at first glance you would ask did he bounce? Well the 58 he ran at Lingfield came 32 days after his win at Wolver which is hardly a quick reappearance. Perhaps he simply did not like the polytrack surface. DENS JOY is a much more likely candidate. After winning a handicap at Wolver in November he returned two weeks later to run a 76. Two weeks after that he was back again but this time after being in touch he tailed of and came in last beaten a distance. After two further disappointing runs, he was put to bed , returning in April on the turf.
MAKTAVISH ran a 70 at Wolver, came back nine days later for a 74 and ten days after that appeared at Southwell were he finished 14th of 15 runners with a 43. If he did indeed bounce, the effects did not last long. He returned to Southwell 25 days later winning a 5f handicap in 68. If anyone spotted it congratulations! He was returned at 16/1. Did any of the three examples bounce or were there other reasons for their poor performance. At the end of the day I do not suppose it matters. There are plenty of horses that throw in unexpected bad runs. The secret is knowing why. Whether it is due to a change of surface, an unfamiliar distance, or indeed the speed figure theorists bounce, is not important. The important thing is to spot it and exploit it.

OXOX
Next I looked at what the Americans call the OXOX phenomenon. I call this the zig zag pattern because that is what it would look like on a graph. Some horses produce alternate high and low speed figures but are unable to produce consecutive good or bad performances. It is as if they bounce after every race. This pattern is seen most often in 3 year olds. It is surprising how many horses fall into this category.

EXAMPLES OF ZIG ZAG SPEED FIGURES

J M W TURNER 0064 W 7F0 67*L 5F 076 W 6Fi 67 S 6F 076 L 6F0 66 S 6F
KINABALU00000i 61 L 7F 0i49 W 1M 054 W 1M1 i49 L 1M20 60 L 1M 0
LADY NATILDAii 58 W 5F 042 W 6F0 66 W 6F 047 W 6F 057*W 6F
LEGAL SET 0000i058 L 6F 0i53 L 6F 0077*L 7F 0i49 S 6F0 71 L 6F 060 L 6F
MY MAITE 00000i66 L1M2 75 L1M2 i62 L 1M2 077*L 1M2
PROSPECT COV ii29 W1M1 59 S 7F036 W 1M0 i57 W 1M1o 37 S 1M3
TASS HEEL 00o0ii61 L 2M 0i67 W 1M7 o62 S 1M6 067*S 1M60 58 L 1M50
WHITE PLAINS i51 W1M70 60*W1M4 45 L 1M5 66*S 1M6 42 W 1M4 YALLA LARA00ii 63 L 7F 0070 L 1M 058 L 7F0 65 L 7F 059 L 1M 071*L 7F

If MY MAITEs next run was 1m2f at Lingfield you would expect him to produce a rating in the mid 70s. Conversely on his next outing KINABALU will probably return a figure around the fifty mark.

THREE TIME IMPROVERS
This title can be misleading because the horse may only have improved twice. The criteria is that a horse has three consecutively improving speed figures. For example PRINCE PROSPECT 67 65 57. When a horse produces this sequence how will it fare in its next race? Like me you would probably expect a further improvement in the majority of cases. However you will probably be as surprised as I was to find out this was not the case. An American study showed that only 25% continued to improve, 4% repeated their previous performance and a whopping 71% produced a lower figure.
These statistics are depressing to say the least. I was hoping they would provide a valuable pointer to future winners. However that particular study was carried out in America where they have much more racing on many differing tracks. How would the figures stack up in this country with limited racing and only three courses.
After carrying out the same research on our 3554 horses I found 622 occasions when this pattern occurred. The question was, on their next run would these horses fare any better than their American counterparts. Sadly the answer was, not a chance. They did even worse. The outcome was devastating. Of the 622 horses in the sample the results were as follows :-

143 IMPROVED 23%
19 0RAN THE SAME 3%
460 RETURNED LOWER FIG 74%

Of the 143 horses who continued to improve only 22 of them won (15%). And that is only a miserable 3.5% of the 622 horses in the sample.
What about horses who ran up three consecutive declining figures, would they continue to deteriorate or would they perform a reverse bounce. The American study showed that 32% continued their decline, 4% ran the same figure and 64% improved. Again I looked at our 3554 horses for comparisons. On the 567 occasions where this pattern emerged :-

153 CONTINUED DECLINE 27%
180 RAN THE SAME 3%
396 IMPROVED 70%
Although 70% of horses improved following their three race decline they did not improve enough to make them worth backing.

OGIT PART 3

2009-01-23T09:41:00.001Z

Fred the spread and placepot phil.

When I print off the ratings for a meeting I highlight the top rated horse last time out in red. Whenever I see Fred in the bookies he’ll shout out, “what’s the red one in the next”. The trouble is the top rated horse might only be 1 point ahead of the field and be running out of form while several others are improving. The horse might have earned that rating over a shorter or longer distance, or on polytrack and not fibresand. Today he may be drawn high in a 5f race at Wolverhampton, or drawn on the stand rail on the 5f straight course at Southwell. When I try explaining this to Fred he stops me short with, “I’m not bothered, I like the red ones.” To be fair there were some cracking priced ‘red uns’ go in last season and if you are betting for fun and do not want to study the form its as good a way to lose your money as any other. So how would you fare backing every top rated horse blind. I checked out 67 meetings and 494 top rated horses between 13th November 2002 and 15th March 2003.

ALL RACES 00WINS 00STRIKE RATE 00PROFIT

000494 0000000118 00000023.46% 0000005.80%

With prices from 2/7 to 16/1 the 494 horses produced 118 winners. A strike rate of 23.46% and a level stakes profit of £25.32. A study in America showed that horses with a 3 point or more advantage over its rivals on its last run won 29% of the time. Again I checked the three all weather tracks in this country for comparisons. I checked out the ratings on the 494 horses and split them into three groups, 311 were superior by 0-3 points, 113 by 4-6 points and 70 by 7-17 points. The results were as follows.

SUPERIOR 0NO OF HORSES 0%OF TOTAL 0WIN 0STRIKE RATE

0000-3 000000000311000000000062%0000000680000021.76%

0004-60000000I00110000000000023%0000000340000029.92%

0007-17000000000700000000000015%000i000160000022.72%

As you can see the group of horses with a 4-6 point advantage provided 34 winners and a strike rate of 29.92%, but the amazing thing was that horses with increased advantage 7-17 points were successful on fewer occasions. Remembering how well horses seemed to do when top rated last time out over C&D, I went back through the figures for the 113 horses in the 4-6 category. The results were most encouraging.

SUPERIOR000RACES000WIN000STRIKE RATE000PROFIT

I4-6 POINTS000I0032000000I12000000037.44%0000I00032%

There were 32 occasions when the top rated horse last time out ran over the course and distance, and 12 of those horses won. That is a strike rate of 37.44% and a profit of £10.24 to a £1 level stake (32%). It must be pointed out that no horses in this study were weeded out. If they were coming back after a lay off, running on an unfavourable surface or over an unsatisfactory distance they were still included. The effect of the draw and the price in the market were irrelevant. The only criteria for their inclusion was that they were the top rated horse by 4-6 points last time out over the course and distance. And yet with no race study, no application of logic and no betting strategy of any kind, the speed figures provided a strike rate of 37.44% and a profit of 32%. Not a bad place to start.

2009-01-22T23:40:00.001Z

CHAPTER SEVEN

WEIGHT
A lot of people say that there are only two figures you need to know to find winners, time and weight. Some punters are convinced that speed ratings are better if they are adjusted for weight. So why aren’t they. After all common sense tells you that a horses performance will be affected by an increase in weight. The problem is it doesn’t affect all horses to the same degree. Some horses carry extra weight better than others. One obvious reason is the size of the horse. If you have been to see the horses in the paddock you will be aware of the huge differences in size. The going also comes into the equation, horses find it harder to carry weight when the ground is soft. Finally the horses condition has to be considered. If a horse is improving and starts to win races his weight will go up, but often the disadvantage of carrying the extra weight is overcome by the horses increased level of fitness. Despite the added weight a horses speed figure can continue to rise. Who is to say that when that figure eventually drops it is due entirely to the increased weight and not simply the fact that the horse has gone over the top and is ready for a break. There is no simple equation you could apply across the board that would apply to all horses in all circumstances and I am sure that any attempted adjustment would lead to the speed figures being distorted. Because of this I make no adjustment whatever for weight. For the 2005/06 season I attached the weigh the horse actually carried to the rating. There is nothing more time consuming or soul destroying than pawing through the form book to find the weight carried by a dozen horses in their last three races. I now have that information at my fingertips. Below is an example of the new layout. The race was at Wolverhampton on 16th January 2006. Four horses had ratings in the 70s with Oldenway and Bethanys Boy top rated. Oldenway had two impressive runs behind him (76 and 80) but both at Southwell on the fibresand and today he was set to carry 9-1 up 5lb. Bethanys Boy by comparison had run 74 over course and distance and was carrying 8-11 down 3lb. So despite Oldenways superior speed figure the 8lb swing in the weights and the surface put Bethanys Boy well in. Oldenway went of 5/2F with Bethanys Boy 7/2.

Bethanys Boy beat Oldenway by 4½ lengths to register his third course and distance win with a rating of 77.
So although the weight is an important calculation I don’t think it should affect the bare speed figure. ‘Split second’ speed ratings in the ‘Raceform Update’ are also calculated without weight adjustment. The reason for this recent change is a study they carried out. After taking random samples of 1000 horses to check the effects of carrying more weight they found that for every pound more that a horse carried from its previous start its speed figure was reduced by 0.4 of a point. Which is what you would expect, however, they also found that for every pound less that a horse carried its speed rating went down again by 0.3 of a point. This would seem to back up the point I made earlier only in reverse. The improving horse has carried increasing amounts of weight until he reaches a peak of fitness, once the horses performance deteriorates the handicapper reduces the burden but the horse still runs slower because of its lack of fitness. One thought occurs to me, if a horse has its weight increased on a number of occasion and runs slower each time and then the weight is reduced and it slows down yet again, it wont be long before it is standing still.

2009-01-21T12:50:00.001Z

CHAPTER EIGHT

THE TRACKS
There are five all weather racecourses in Britain. Four are currently active with Great Leighs due to join them in the Autumn. Lingfield is the oldest, and the first all weather meeting in the country was staged there on their new equitrack surface in 1989. Southwell followed and in 1993 Wolverhampton joined them becoming Britain’s first floodlit racecourse. For the next thirteen years these three courses kept flat
racing going through the winter and many times kept the book making industry ticking over when jump racing had been abandoned. In March 2006 Kempton became Britain’s newest all weather track. With the latest generation of polytrack and a retractable floodlighting system Kempton became the first all weather track in the country to run right handed. Great Leighs should have been all weather course number four but construction problems and bad weather have delayed the opening until Autumn 2007.

As all weather racing becomes more popular, and more tracks come on line the need for reliable information increases. On turf the most important information is the state of the ground, and for any serious gambler an accurate up-to-date going report is essential. And yet despite this fact punters on the all weather have had to endure eighteen years of Standard going. With this third rate information is there any wonder they call the all weather, racings third code. For a start not only does the going vary from track to track it can vary dramatically on the same track from one meeting to the next.
On the all weather there are two factors that determine the going, the weather and the way the track is prepared. Track preparation involves both harrowing and rolling. At Southwell if frost is forecast they harrow deeper which slows the track down considerably. When the track has been rolled after rain it compacts and rides fast. On the eve of a meeting
the course officials are aware of prevailing weather conditions and they know how they are going to prepare the track surely it wouldn’t be too much trouble to give a brief report on how they expect the track to ride.

2009-01-20T11:10:00.001Z

THE TRACKS

A left handed floodlit polytrack circuit with two chutes for 7f and 8f races and a 2f home and back straight.

Address:
Great Leighs Racecourse, The Showground, Chelmsford, Essex,
CM3 1QP
01245 362 412
Web: www.greatleighs.com
Location:

Five miles north of Chelmsford on the A131.
Train:
Chelmsford Station from Liverpool Street (27min). A bus shuttle
to the racecourse will operate on race days.

Great Leighs is the first new racecourse to be built in Britain since 1927 and has an 8½f polytrack circuit which meets the HRA upgraded specifications for a 135m minimum radius bend. There are chutes for 7f and 8f races. Due to delay in construction it is scheduled to start racing in 2008.

LINGFIELD

A sharp undulating left handed track with a downhill stretch into the home bend and a short run in. The polytrack course is 1m2f round.

Address: Lingfield Park Racecourse, Lingfield, Surrey, FH7 6PQ
01342 834800
Webb: http://www.lingfield-racecourse.co.uk/
Location: South East of town on B2028 Edenbridge Road.
M23 junction 9, M25 junction 6.
Train: Lingfield Station, adjoining course. From London Victoria
journey time 35mins.

The first all weather meeting in this country was staged at Lingfield Park on October 30th 1989, where Niklas Angel won Britains first all weather race. After twelve successful years the equitrack surface was becoming tired and worn. After losing meetings in early 2001 a new polytrack surface was laid. This new surface 70% synthetic with a wax coating can withstand temperatures down to -12° Celsius. It provides more cushioning and subsequently less jarring than the old equitrack which could be like concrete in wet conditions. The new polytrack surface has very little kick back by comparison and is more popular with both jockeys and trainers.
On July 9th 2005 Lingfield Park made history again when it staged the first Group race ever run on an all weather surface. The Ladbrokes Silver Trophy had been re-routed from Ascot and was won by Autumn Glory.

The contours of the track favour well balanced horses who can run down hill. The old equitrack surface was notorious for producing a strong low draw bias. The kickback was so harsh that any horse who made a dash for the inside and ran from the front would tend not to get beaten. But in 2001 the surface was replaced with the more kickback friendly polytrack. For the first few weeks of racing the low bias still existed but in recent years the bias has been negated by specific course work which has made part of the track slower than others.
Polytrack is the easiest surface to manipulate, it is so versatile that the ground staff can vary the going across the complete width of the track. Subsequently the strip nearest the far rail is often slower than the rest of the track. In races over 7f and 1m horses drawn middle to high have the edge. There is a longer run to the first bend which allows hold up horses from higher stalls to secure a good early pitch. The only draw bias of any significance is over 1m2f. It can be hard to get into the race, you hit the first bend after only a furlong and from a high draw you can lose five or six lengths. Horses who exert a bit of energy early on to get a good position are often caught in the final stages of the race.

WOLVERHAMPTON

A left handed oval track with sharp bends and a short run in of only 380yards. The polytrack course is 1m round.

Address:
Wolverhampton Racecourse, Dunstall Park, Wolverhampton,
West Midlands, WV6 0PE
0870 220 2442
Web: http://www.wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk/
Location:
One mile north of the city centre, off A449 Stafford Road. Follow
the brown tourists signs to Dunstall Park. M6 (jct 10A) follow M54
(jct 2). Approach via A449
Train:
One mile Wolverhampton Station. From London Euston and
from Birmingham New Street (every 10 mins).

There has been a racecourse at Wolverhampton since 1887 although it has changed location slightly since the early years. Floodlit all weather racing was pioneered at Dunstall Park in 1993. The old style course had been re-vamped with a new all weather fibresand track running inside the turf track. The majority of racing was on the all weather with just a few jump fixtures a year. Formerly privately owned the racecourse was purchased by Arena Leisure in 1999.

During the winter of 2000/01 problems were beginning to develop. The surface which had been in use for seven years had inevitably become worn and tired. This was reducing its ability to drain properly. In extreme cases of wet or cold the track was becoming unfit for racing. During July and August 2001 Arena Leisure laid 140 new drains and 7000 tons of fibresand.
In 2004 the fibresand track and the turf track were replaced with a polytrack surface. The new track is slightly bigger as it has encompassed what was left of the old turf course. This has brought the action closer to the stands and made the bends slightly less severe. Each year has seen the fixture list grow and in 2006 Wolverhampton hosted 110 fixtures.

Although the new surface is similar to Lingfield, it is riding much slower and front runners are being collared close to home. In 5f races draws 4-6 are best. The low drawn horses can be trapped on the rail and those drawn high have too much ground to make up. In 6f races, horses have the length of the back straight to sort themselves out but coming out of the 7f chute they are soon into the bend and horses drawn wide can be at a severe disadvantage.

SOUTHWELL

A left handed oval fibresand course, 1m2f round with a straight 5f.

Address: Southwell Racecourse, Rolleston, Nottingham, NG25 0TS
01636 814481
Web: http://www.southwell-racecourse.co.uk/
Location: Southwell has free parking for 1000 vehicles and is situated
at Rolleston, 3miles south east of Southwell and 7miles
west of Newark. Access from the A1 and M1 via the A46
and the A617
Train: Station Rolleston adjacent to course on Nottm - Newark line.
Journey times six minutes Newark, 20 minutes Nottingham.

Southwell is the only track with a fibresand surface and was extensively refurbished in August 2000. With its long straights and sweeping bends it is ideal for relentless gallopers. However the surface can be deep and testing particularly after dry or frosty weather. Subsequently Southwell rides the slowest of the all weather tracks and tired horses often get caught. Hold up horses fare better, and in the longer races you need to look for horses with form beyond the distance they are running as they often prevail, particularly during the winter season. The kickback is considerable and races up to a mile usually develop from the front. In longer races it is more difficult to make all the running. In October 2004 further refurbishment was carried out using tons of second hand fibresand from the old Wolverhampton surface. Drainage was improved and the track actually raised a few inches. This altered the draw bias. Before the refurbishment a low draw was essential to get into the race, but now on the round course low numbers are at a big disadvantage. In fact in the first 125 starts over 1m following the refurbishment, stall one only won once, a strike rate of 0.8%. In races from 6f to 1m consider laying any fancied horse in stall one. On the 5f straight, horses drawn low have a significant advantage. They get the faster part of the track over the first few furlongs and can then grab the favoured middle of the track when they join the round course. Beware of publications and pundits who still think that high is disadvantageous, since the refurbishment it isn’t.

KEMPTON

S H Hyde a 19th century businessman and Tory party agent was enjoying a carriage drive in the country when he came across Kempton Manor and Park for sale. Hyde leased the grounds formed a company and a racecourse was built. The first fixture took place on Thursday 18th July 1878.
Kempton Park has been the home of the prestigious King George V1 Chase since 1937 when only four runners went to post. Past winners include Arkle, Wayward Lad, One Man, Best Mate and the legendary Desert Orchid who won the race a record four times.
During the two world wars Kempton Park was requisitioned by the War Office. In 1915 it was used as a depot for military vehicles and in 1939 it became a prisoner of war camp. Kempton reopened for the Easter meeting in 1947 and raced non stop until closing on May 2nd 2005 for re development. On the 25th March 2006 Kempton Racecourse proudly opened its new £18.5 million floodlit all weather track.

A right handed polytrack course. 5f and 1m2f use the inside course. The rest use the outside.

Address: Kempton Park Racecourse, Staines Road East, Sunbury-on-Thames, Middlesex. TW16 5AQ 01932 782292

Web: Kempton@rht.net

Location: On the A308 Kingston Road, 1/2mile from M3 Jct 1 and is well signposted from the motorway.

Rail: Kempton Park Station, from London Waterloo (1/2 hour)

Air: London Heathrow, (6 miles)

The new polytrack surface took time to bed down and for the first few months high numbers were doing badly. In the summer horses drawn high started to win.

In races over 5f, 6f and 7f there is a slight advantage to be drawn high. Over 1m and 1m4f it is better to have a low draw. To date there seems to be no advantage from being drawn high or low over 1m 2f.

2009-01-19T10:50:00.001Z

CHAPTER NINE

BETTING STRATEGY
The best staking plan in the world is useless if your horses do not win. By the same token a system which helps you to uncover a high percentage of winners will not make you money if you have no betting strategy. I must admit I have never tried sticking to a rigid staking plan, but I don’t think you need to as long as you follow a few simple rules.

1. KEEP A BOOK
There are no excuses. Keeping records of all bets is essential whether they are major bets or fun bets. If you have not got the discipline for this simple necessity then gambling probably is not for you. You may think I am being harsh here but carrying out this simple procedure will not only show you how well you are doing (or not doing whichever the case may be) it will also help to keep you focussed and in control.
I started my first book in 1995, a diary with a page for each day. Things were fine for about three weeks, then I hit a losing run and did not make another entry for three months. This pattern continued for a couple of years. At the time I did not realize how important it was to keep records and when a losing run came along I did not have the heart to persevere. At the end of 1997 I had my first complete record. During the following two months I went through it with a fine tooth comb, analysing every bet I had made. I worked out totals staked and totals returned for horses on both flat and jumps, football, rugby, golf, dogs, even the kind of bets, singles, doubles, trebles, yankees, and round robins. The most amazing statistic was that although at that time I was only betting small and thought I was doing well I had turned over £10,000 and returned £8,000. Out of a £2000 loss I had paid £750 in tax. Jump racing and the dogs cost me the most money, and the biggest losing type of bet was the yankee. No wonder the bookmakers love them. Out of 129 attempts I hit all four winners once, had three out of four just three times and only managed to get a double up 20 times with 105 losers. A further study pinpointed my biggest losing day. If I had kept out of the betting shop on Saturdays I would have made an overall profit. .
The following year I was determined that the jumps and dogs would have to go. On the few occasions when I transgressed (and when I did they usually lost) I would circle the entry in my diary in red ink and add a suitable comment. My turnover increased and my losses were reduced. I had a setback in 1999, a serious family illness curtailed my gambling activities, and I took a six month sabbatical. I was back in the harness by the start of the 2000 flat season, determined that my new found speed ratings would catapult me into profit. Although there was further improvement the year still ended with a small loss. The speed rating were proving time consuming and I was having difficulty keeping them up to date, but the encouraging thing was, that had it not been for betting tax I would have ended up in the black.
Despite being behind for most of the following year the speed figures came good on the all weather in November and December. Betting shop tax had been abolished on October 6th and at the end of the year for the first time in my life, I was showing a profit. It may only have been £697.65 but it was a milestone I thought I would never reach. Keeping a book helped me convert substantial losses into profit. Once I started to analyse each year’s results I was able to attack from two directions. While the ratings were gradually producing winners, the discipline gained from the analysis was helping to cut losses.
Not exactly Andrew Beyers ‘My $50,000 Year at the Races,’ but it does emphasize the importance of keeping records

2009-01-18T10:40:00.001Z

2. SINGLE BETS ONLY NEVER BACK E.W

I recently read an article that suggested horses should never be backed each way and that instead the whole stake should be put on to win. Apparently there is a school of thought that says, ‘if you think a horse will win why back it each way and if you don’t think it will win why back it at all.’ The article went on to suggest that in the long run straight win bets would be more profitable. I was sceptical and decided to check it out. After consulting my book I found that between November and February the previous year I had backed 52 horses at 8/1 or higher (see appendix 4). They all had good speed figures and I had fancied them to at least get into the frame. Of these 52 bets 11 were win only and 41 were each way. 12 won and 7 were placed. The total stakes were £1805. The returns were £4143 a profit of £2328 (129% of stake).

As you can see from the above table if all 52 bets had been win only the total stakes would have remained the same but the returns would have been £5000, a profit of £3195 (176% of stake). I must admit I was surprised and next season I will be sticking to WIN only bets.

3. MINIMUM 3/1

In the original book this section recommended a 2/1 minimum price. This was based on a strike rate between 1 in 3 and 1 in 4 and virtually guaranteed a profit. This should now be revised to 5/2 or even 3/1. The reasons for this are as follows. Before the internet and exchanges arrived the rails bookmakers used the tissue price in the Racing Post as a guide when framing their opening prices. As you will see in the next two chapters during the 2002/03 winter season big priced top rated horses were readily available. The rails bookmakers were quick to embrace this new technology and are now in constant contact with the exchanges. Before any opening show they check to see what is being backed. This means any horse attracting money is spotted immediately and opens up a short price. In the past four years the average price of top rated horses has decreased considerably. The strike rate is the same but backing down to 2/1 has meant that the profit has all but disappeared.

4. ALL WEATHER ONLY

Speed figures are more accurate with a smaller pool of horses and fewer tracks. In 2007 there will be a record number of race meetings with a further increase planned for 2008. This is not so bad if you use one of the many speed figure services, but if you want to produce your own it would be easier to start with the Winter All Weather. In the past this has meant three tracks and most days only one meeting. This is set to change this winter with five tracks and evening racing. More hectic than usual granted but still more manageable than the summer.

5. RACES TO SWERVE

Ignore races where horses are switching between turf and grass or were most of the horses have no AW form at all. Also avoid distances of 1m4f or more. Speed figures work better in races up to a mile. Races run over longer distances are harder to work out as they often become tactical. Slow run races result in low, misleading speed figures.

2009-01-17T10:30:00.001Z

6. SURFACE

Never back a horse who has not proven himself over course and distance. Although four of the five tracks have a polytrack surface it would be wrong to assume that a horse will be equally at home on any of them. Wolverhampton is tight, Great Leighs has sweeping bends, Lingfield is part down hill with a tight bend and a camber and Kempton is right handed. They are all polytrack, but they are all different.

7. NEVER FOLLOW STABLES, JOCKEYS OR HORSES

We have heard it all before. “The stables on fire they have had six winners all ready this week.” The pundits are full of it, “Success is contagious” and “The stable is full of confidence.” Tosh. The question is who tells the horse. Do they read the Racing Post. A horse is either in form or out of form. Granted an inform horse can throw in a bad race. But regardless of whatever else is going on in a yard, an out of form horse with limited ability will always be just that. Following a stable or horse blind is the road to the poor house. If you have a favourite stable fine. Look for horses in that stable with improving speed figures.
Don’t back every horse they send out just because they have had a few winners. If you like a horse that’s ok as well. But only back it when the ratings show it can win. As for jockeys, they are surpassed only by trainers as the worst tipsters in racing. How many times have you heard, “He’s the best horse I have ever sat on.” Watch any interview with any jockey, when asked for an opinion the reply always starts with, “He’s a nice horse.” Hardly earth shattering information. You can bet your life that if the trainer or jockey knows anything about a horse the last person they will be telling is Joe public. I appreciate that some jockeys are better than others and if you have two horses with similar ratings the jockey can make all the difference. But always remember. ‘The best jockey on the worst horse will always get beat by the worst jockey on the best.’

8. OPTIONS
Sometimes you will find two stand out horses in a race. If you do and the price is right be prepared to back both horses. If however one horse is a short price (rule 3 less than 3/1) then the other should be backed every time. Alternatively you could put them in a reverse exacta. Finally there is a third simple option which is easier said than done, leave the race alone.

2009-01-16T10:20:00.001Z

CHAPTER TEN

A DAY AT THE BOOKIES

Not being a driver I do most commuting by train. This is handy for Southwell and Wolverhampton and the travelling time can be spent studying. This unfortunately is not the case with Lingfield. Travelling into London and then changing stations and trains means setting off at the crack of dawn and it makes for a long day. For this reason I usually go to the betting shop if a good thing crops up at Lingfield, as it did on Saturday January 4th. There was an eight race card starting at 12.05 but it was the last four races that interested me. Four horses all top rated last time out and all those figures produced on the polytrack at Lingfield. On top of that they were all in with an excellent chance of winning. Mutawaqed and Linning Wine would probably go off favourite but Paragon of Virtue and Coppington Flyer looked likely to provide some value. I checked the early prices at Dones, 4-1, 4-1, 8-1 & 7-1.
I decided to put them in a £5 Yankee and then back them as singles. The Scoop 6 on this particular Saturday was a Scoop 4 and the four races in question were the last four at Lingfield, so I put my four horses on the ticket and handed over my £2.

In the 2.05 Mutawaqed overcame a slow start to burst through and win inside the last 100yds. I had £40 on and managed to grab 9/2.
RESULT 1. MUTAWAQED 7/2
................2. MADRASEE 12/1
................3. COMPTON BANKER 10/1

2009-01-15T10:10:00.001Z

One of the draw backs in not going to the track is the pub. Time flies when you are having a pint and talking racing. That is exactly what happened here. I dashed across to the bookies only to find the runners turning into the home straight. Linning Wine looked menacing as he moved up on the inside to join the leaders. With 100yds to go Compton Commander came up on the outer to grab the race on the line.

RESULT ..1. COMPTON COMMANDER 10/1
..................2. HIGH HOPE 6/1
..................3. THEATRE 10/1
..................4. LINNING WINE 3/1F

A lot is made of alcohol and gambling not mixing, and it is fair comment. Personally I like the odd pint between races, it helps me relax and allows me to escape the constant bombardment of action thrown at you in the betting shop. There are two points to be wary of here. Firstly its easy to miss a race. I was lucky, but sods law states that if you don’t get on, the horse wins. The other point is if you drink too much it does tend to boost your confidence and empty your wallet. I make a point of finishing the serious gambling before starting the serious drinking.
In the next race Paragon of Virtue was the top rated three time improver all three runs being at Lingfield. Analyze ran a 74 two runs ago over C&D but looks like he bounced last time with a 63. Willoughbys Boy and Perfidious looked the dangers.

Paragon of Virtue chased the leaders from 3f out, led at the furlong pole and was driven clear inside the last. I had £40 EW at 8/1. When I did the ratings later Paragon of Virtue earned a speed figure of 78 for this run. The best performance of the day.

RESULT ...1. PARAGON OF VIRTUE 8/1
...................2. PERFIDIUS 11/2
...................3. MY MAITE 12/1

This was one of those occasions where you need to sit down for a minute and take stock. I had winning tickets worth £600, a further £225 for the double in the yankee and £225 going onto a 7/1. By now my head was spinning. Sods law rule 2 states that if you work out what you will get back before it wins, it wont, and so I didn’t, I went back across the road for a pint. After this 8/1 winner the only question in the pub was, what was the speed horse in the next. In the last, Coppington Flyer was poised to make a great day unforgettable and by the time I got back into the betting shop I was not the only one on it.

2009-01-14T10:05:00.001Z

Despite the ongoing yankee I could not resist another £20 EW at 8/1. She was held up towards the rear and made progress on the outside over 2f out to a shout of, “here she comes.” In front at the furlong pole she was driven and kept on well inside the final furlong. The cheering started before she reached the line.

.
RESULT.... 1. COPPINGTON FLYER 7/1
...................2. A BEETOO 10/1
...................3. LADY LIESEL 14/1

.
It was now time to start on the Strongbow and JD chasers. On the whole a memorable and profitable day with no complaints. But oh dear Linning Wine how close I had been to a five figure payout. Despite coming 4th he was within a length of the winner. If he had got up to win, the yankee would have paid £16,060. And remember the £2 Scoop 4 ticket. I found that the next day when I was bringing my book up to date. The placepot part of the ticket paid £109 but the Jackpot paid £15,000.

CHAPTER ELEVEN

A DAY AT THE RACES

After running off the ratings one Wednesday evening I found two stand out horses for Southwell the following day. Wensleydale Lad and Whinhill House. I decided to go. Southwell is the nearest A.W. track to where I live and if the trains run on time I can be there in an hour. This time is usually spent checking out the ratings against the tissue prices in the Racing Post. Although I enjoy travelling by train it can have its down side. On this particular day my train to Nottingham was late and I missed the connection. Rolleston Station is about 200yds from Southwell racecourse but apart from the course it is in the middle of nowhere. Subsequently trains only stop by request on race
days. As the next train would arrive after the start of the first race there was some debate on the platform as to whether it would actually stop. I made some enquiries at the station managers office and found that a form had to be signed by the manager and handed to the driver authorizing him to drop us off. Come back British Rail all is forgiven.
I eventually arrived at Southwell having missed the opening race which I am thankful to say did not involve either of the horses I was interested in.

2009-01-13T10:00:00.001Z

The second race was a 6f claimer. As you can see Lillies Bordello was top rated last time out running a 71 at Wolver. This was a classic example of rule 6, unproved over C&D. I naively assumed she would improve again. Looking at the figures now they fit the three time improver pattern and is a prime candidate to bounce. I had £20 E.W. She bounced all right one paced for the final 2f she trailed in 5th, 8l behind the winner I suppose at 14/1 it was not exactly unexpected.

.
RESULT 1. PRIMA STELLA 6/1
...............2. RUDIK 9/2
...............3. GAME GURU 13/8

.
The next race was the days main attraction and involved Whinhill House. The gelding had led in his last race stayed on and was headed inside the last finishing a 1/2L 3rd at 20/1. I was at Southwell that day and discovered that his previous poor runs were due to a back problem. The 5f straight at Southwell is not used that often and usually runs slower than the round course. Subsequently not many horses pick up speed ratings in the 70s. This made Whinhill Houses 73 far superior to the 74 Ladies Knight had run over the round 6f.

After opening at 8/1 Whinhill House went out to 10/1 and I had £ 50 E.W. When it drifted to 11/1 I had another £ 20 to win. Whinhill House made all and held on well towards the finish.

.
RESULT 1. WHINHILL HOUSE 10/1
...............2. SCARY NIGHT 2/1F
...............3. ARABIAN KNIGHT 7/1

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When he entered the winners enclosure I was already there waiting for him. You can’t do that at Ladbrokes!

The 4th race looked a two horse affair with Warden Warren and Sundried Tomato the stand out horses. I decided to go with Warden Warren. He had produced two good figures on the fibresand and a C&D win last time out when he beat Indian Steppes by a neck. Just for good measure he was the ‘red un.’ I wondered whether Fred was on it. He opened at 7/1 and I backed him £ 40 to win. Unfortunately Sundried Tomato with equally impressive figures held on to beat Middleton Grey a short head with the Warden back in 5th. An elementary mistake. At 7/1 and 8/1 I should have backed both horses (rule 8).

RESULT 1. SUNDRIED TOMATO 8/1
..............2. MIDDLETON GREY 6/1
..............3. PENWELL HILL 4/1

The 5th race was a seller and time to play up the winnings. Wensleydale Lad opened at 2/1. I decided to wait and felt quiet pleased with myself when I put on my £ 200 at 9/4. I was not so smug a few minutes later when it went 5/2 in places. His 62 last time out looked good enough in this company with the possible exception of Docduckout who won over C&D two runs ago with a 65. I figured that Docduckout had peaked that day and that Wensleydale Lad would improve again
I must confess I was worried when they turned into the home straight and he was nowhere in sight. However he made a late move and stayed on well inside the final furlong to win readily.

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RESULT 1. WENSLEYDALE LAD 9/4F
...............2. SIR NIGHT 11/1
...............3. REPEAT 15/2

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The 3.35 was a handicap and to be perfectly honest I was going to give it a miss and have a drink. Fortunately I met someone in the bar with stable connections who told me Hajeer was expected to win. Now I normally take whispers with a pinch of salt but this chap sounded pretty confident. I checked the ratings again and saw that Hajeer was the only horse in the field with C&D figures in the 60s.

I decided to back it, a decision that was easy to make being the best part of a thousand pounds up after four races. Hajeer opened at 3/1 but was 11/4 before I could get on. I staked £ 100 win and a few moments later had a rush of blood to the head striking the same bet this time at 5/2. Hajeer led 3 furlongs out and held on.

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RESULT 1. HAJEER 5/2F
..............2. KENT 100/30
..............3. ROYAL AXMINSTER 20/1
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Race 7 was DIV 11 of the six furlong claimer. Legal Set was the obvious good thing although he had no recent form at Southwell. I went £ 100 win and took the opening 11/4. This bet was a mistake. It once again broke the golden rule that you never back a horse that has not proven himself on the surface (rule 6).

2009-01-12T09:55:00.001Z

Before this race an old wag in the bar pointed out Karl Burke, Legal Sets trainer and told me he wouldn’t be at Southwell if he didn’t expect a winner. Well Legal Set was the 9/4 fav and finished 6th. I decided to take the money and run. The last race was 4.40 and the train 4.45. Being flesh and blood and probably too much flesh, temptation got the better of me and while waiting for the train I phoned Surrey Racing and had £50 EW on Son of a Gun in the last. I could hear the racecourse commentary from the platform. The race was won by Parlight at 25/1 the trainer, oh yes it was Karl Burke the old wag in the bar had been right I hope he was on it.

With three winners out of seven, five winning bets out of nine and a profit of £ 1500 I decided that a celebration was in order and stopped off in Nottingham on the way home. Why can’t every day be like this.
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2009-01-11T14:46:00.001Z

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CHAPTER TWELVE

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FINALLY

The one thing I’ve learned in the years I have been gambling is, that it is never too late to learn.
For twenty five years I learned absolutely nothing. Every selection I made was based on someone else’s opinion. Newspaper tipsters, postdata, topspeed and there is always somebody who knows someone who’s heard something. By simply backing favourites you are exploiting the opinions of the on course punters. Everything changed once I had been introduced to the humble speed rating.
I usually run off the figures the day before, that way if anything exciting crops up I can go to the track. The added advantage is that I can sort through the horses and draw up a short list without any idea of the tissue prices. I do not know why but if I know which horses are fancied before hand it seems to cloud my judgement. It is a bit like those court room scenes on TV where the prosecution divulge damming information about the defendant and the judge instructs the jury to disregard what has been said. If a stand out horse is a big price I will still back it, the only time I let the price put me off is if it is under 2/1. I do stretch the point if a horse is a real stand out and have backed at 15/8 and 7/4 but that is the exception and not the rule.
The decision I made in Calla Millor to concentrate on the all weather for the 2002/03 winter season resulted in a profit of £5K. But it could have been so much better and another important lesson was learned. The second week in January I booked a last minute flight to Futurventura. I had promised to take Gill away after Christmas and thought the break would do me good. I was wrong. For a start the weather was abysmal, the worst they’d had for 16 years. Even worse was the disastrous effect it had on the entire season. It was a big mistake interrupting a run of good results and going away while the speed figures were at their best.
When I got back it took me two weeks to catch up on the ratings and get back into the groove. During this time I had a run of eight consecutive losing days which cost me £2.2K. By the time I was back on an even keel it was mid February and the turf horses were beginning to appear. Before I knew it the season was over. Without this set back I am convinced the profits would have been nearer £10K. It was a lesson well learnt and a mistake I will not be making again.
There were four major events over 7 years that put my gambling operation into profit. In the order that they occurred they were :-

1. Keeping a book
2. Speed Ratings (Mordin on Time)
3. The abolition of betting shop tax.
4. The decision to concentrate on the all weather

On the whole it was a successful first winter AW season and I cannot wait until November to get started again. It does seem strange not betting on the turf like I used to. When I go for a drink in the afternoon people are dashing in and out to the bookies next door. This time last year I would have been with them in pole position. There is no way I could have resisted the temptation to have a bet, but now it does not bother me at all. Making a profit seems to have given me a discipline I have never had before. I suppose I just don’t want to give them the money back. I am quite happy to wait until November before getting involved again. You could say, ‘I have retired to the side lines while the game I know is no longer being played.’

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THE END

OGIT PART 4

2008-03-16T12:20:00.000Z

2008-03-16T11:00:00.001Z

NEXT CHAPTER 9 : EIGHT WAYS TO IMPROVE YOUR BETTING