OGIT PART 3

Fred the spread and placepot phil.

When I print off the ratings for a meeting I highlight the top rated horse last time out in red. Whenever I see Fred in the bookies he’ll shout out, “what’s the red one in the next”. The trouble is the top rated horse might only be 1 point ahead of the field and be running out of form while several others are improving. The horse might have earned that rating over a shorter or longer distance, or on polytrack and not fibresand. Today he may be drawn high in a 5f race at Wolverhampton, or drawn on the stand rail on the 5f straight course at Southwell. When I try explaining this to Fred he stops me short with, “I’m not bothered, I like the red ones.” To be fair there were some cracking priced ‘red uns’ go in last season and if you are betting for fun and do not want to study the form its as good a way to lose your money as any other. So how would you fare backing every top rated horse blind. I checked out 67 meetings and 494 top rated horses between 13th November 2002 and 15th March 2003.

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ALL RACES 00WINS 00STRIKE RATE 00PROFIT

000494 0000000118 00000023.46% 0000005.80%

With prices from 2/7 to 16/1 the 494 horses produced 118 winners. A strike rate of 23.46% and a level stakes profit of £25.32. A study in America showed that horses with a 3 point or more advantage over its rivals on its last run won 29% of the time. Again I checked the three all weather tracks in this country for comparisons. I checked out the ratings on the 494 horses and split them into three groups, 311 were superior by 0-3 points, 113 by 4-6 points and 70 by 7-17 points. The results were as follows.

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SUPERIOR 0NO OF HORSES 0%OF TOTAL 0WIN 0STRIKE RATE

0000-3 000000000311000000000062%0000000680000021.76%

0004-60000000I00110000000000023%0000000340000029.92%

0007-17000000000700000000000015%000i000160000022.72%

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As you can see the group of horses with a 4-6 point advantage provided 34 winners and a strike rate of 29.92%, but the amazing thing was that horses with increased advantage 7-17 points were successful on fewer occasions. Remembering how well horses seemed to do when top rated last time out over C&D, I went back through the figures for the 113 horses in the 4-6 category. The results were most encouraging.

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SUPERIOR000RACES000WIN000STRIKE RATE000PROFIT

I4-6 POINTS000I0032000000I12000000037.44%0000I00032%

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There were 32 occasions when the top rated horse last time out ran over the course and distance, and 12 of those horses won. That is a strike rate of 37.44% and a profit of £10.24 to a £1 level stake (32%). It must be pointed out that no horses in this study were weeded out. If they were coming back after a lay off, running on an unfavourable surface or over an unsatisfactory distance they were still included. The effect of the draw and the price in the market were irrelevant. The only criteria for their inclusion was that they were the top rated horse by 4-6 points last time out over the course and distance. And yet with no race study, no application of logic and no betting strategy of any kind, the speed figures provided a strike rate of 37.44% and a profit of 32%. Not a bad place to start.