CHAPTER SIX

PATTERNS IN THE SAND

So how can yesterday’s speed figures help you locate tomorrows winners?
When you examine a horse’s speed ratings it is surprising what they can tell you. In the following examples, as in the rest of the book, the horses last run is on the left. The easiest thing to spot are horses who show a steady improvement :-

SHALBEBLUE 0000II65 S 1M3 II60 S 1M4 III57 S 1M30044 W 1M4
WINDY BRITAIN00I72 L 1M2 II69 W 1M1 II68 W 1M1II 67 L 1M2
WOODSMOKE 000.062 W 6F III61 W 5F IIII51 W 6F IIII43 W 5F

And those who show a steady decline:-

PRIVATE SEAL0059 L 1M2 OI60 L 1M2 0063 L 1M2 064 L 1M4
TINKS MAN 000049 S 6F 00III53 S 6F 0I0II57 W 5FIIII62 W 6F

Some horses show a liking for a certain distance or a certain track :-

BLONDE EN BLONDE I73 W 7F0I66*S 6F II066*W 6F050 L 5F
BYO000000000000000067 L 5F 0I71 L 5F IIIO71 W 5F 071 L 5F
EYECATCHER000000I77 L 7F 0I75 L 7F 0I0I76*L 7F O71 L 7F
HIGH FINANCE000II058 W 7F 064*L 1M 0II64 L 1M 064 L 7F

BLONDE EN BLONDE seems to like the fibresand at Southwell and Wolver but is not so keen on Lingfields polytrack. BYO seems to be equally at home on either surface and would probably handle 5f at Southwell. EYECATCHER is a solid 7f performer at Lingfield, while HIGH FINANCE is equally consistent but at a lower level.

PADDYWACK077 W 5F 0 33 S 6F 0I049 S 5F0I 62 S 5F OI76*W 5F0
PERFIDIOUS I76 L 1M2 I62 W 1M1I 76 L 1M 068 W 1M1 I70 L 1M2

PADDYWACK has produced his two biggest figures over 5f at Wolver but his Southwell performances are not much to write home about.
PERFIDIOUS is not so keen on Wolver and seems to prefer 1m2f at Lingfield.

REDOUBTABLE032 S 6F 0I60 W 7F 0I55 W 6F O37 S 7F 0I63 W 6F
RIVER DAYS I0072*W 5F I46 S 5F 0I065 L 6F 0I72*W 5F I72 L 5F 0
SIENA STAR I069 L 1M2 I76 L 1M2 I61 L 1M4 I70 L 1M2 I76 L 1M2 I

REDOUBTABLE has put in two woeful performances at Southwell, while RIVER DAYS is a 5f specialist at both Wolver and Lingfield. SIENA STAR is another horse that goes well over 1m2f at Lingfield, but look what happened when they tried him at 1m4f.
While the examples above are simple and easy to spot other patterns are more complex. Compared to America all weather racing in this country is still in its infancy, so what can the Americans teach us about speed ratings and the patterns that have emerged? Several theories have emerged over the years I checked to see if there were comparisons in our own figures. Without doubt the most famous is the ‘bounce’ so that is where I started.

BOUNCE
This is where a horse runs an exceptionally high figure or in a particularly hard race. On its next appearance the chances are it will run a poor race with a low speed figure. The horse is said to have bounced. I decided to check last seasons speed figures and see if horses bounce in this country. My database contained speed ratings for all horses that had run on the all weather between the beginning of October 2002 and the end of May 2003. This provided a sample of 3554 horses over a period of 8 months. I looked for horses who may have ‘bounced.’ This produced the following examples.

POSSIBLE EXAMPLES OF BOUNCE

COOLBYPOOL00 58 L 1M2 074*W 1M1o 68*W 1M1 060 W 7F
DENS JOY 00000 i52 S 1M iiiii0D W 1M1 i76 W 1M1 i75*W 1M1 MAKTAVISH 0iii061 S 5F 0oii68*S 5F000 43 S 5F 000ii74 W 5F

I have used the word possible because there is reasonable doubt about each horses apparent bounce.
Take COOLBYTHEPOOL for instance, at first glance you would ask did he bounce? Well the 58 he ran at Lingfield came 32 days after his win at Wolver which is hardly a quick reappearance. Perhaps he simply did not like the polytrack surface. DENS JOY is a much more likely candidate. After winning a handicap at Wolver in November he returned two weeks later to run a 76. Two weeks after that he was back again but this time after being in touch he tailed of and came in last beaten a distance. After two further disappointing runs, he was put to bed , returning in April on the turf.
MAKTAVISH ran a 70 at Wolver, came back nine days later for a 74 and ten days after that appeared at Southwell were he finished 14th of 15 runners with a 43. If he did indeed bounce, the effects did not last long. He returned to Southwell 25 days later winning a 5f handicap in 68. If anyone spotted it congratulations! He was returned at 16/1. Did any of the three examples bounce or were there other reasons for their poor performance. At the end of the day I do not suppose it matters. There are plenty of horses that throw in unexpected bad runs. The secret is knowing why. Whether it is due to a change of surface, an unfamiliar distance, or indeed the speed figure theorists bounce, is not important. The important thing is to spot it and exploit it.

OXOX
Next I looked at what the Americans call the OXOX phenomenon. I call this the zig zag pattern because that is what it would look like on a graph. Some horses produce alternate high and low speed figures but are unable to produce consecutive good or bad performances. It is as if they bounce after every race. This pattern is seen most often in 3 year olds. It is surprising how many horses fall into this category.

EXAMPLES OF ZIG ZAG SPEED FIGURES

J M W TURNER 0064 W 7F0 67*L 5F 076 W 6Fi 67 S 6F 076 L 6F0 66 S 6F
KINABALU00000i 61 L 7F 0i49 W 1M 054 W 1M1 i49 L 1M20 60 L 1M 0
LADY NATILDAii 58 W 5F 042 W 6F0 66 W 6F 047 W 6F 057*W 6F
LEGAL SET 0000i058 L 6F 0i53 L 6F 0077*L 7F 0i49 S 6F0 71 L 6F 060 L 6F
MY MAITE 00000i66 L1M2 75 L1M2 i62 L 1M2 077*L 1M2
PROSPECT COV ii29 W1M1 59 S 7F036 W 1M0 i57 W 1M1o 37 S 1M3
TASS HEEL 00o0ii61 L 2M 0i67 W 1M7 o62 S 1M6 067*S 1M60 58 L 1M50
WHITE PLAINS i51 W1M70 60*W1M4 45 L 1M5 66*S 1M6 42 W 1M4 YALLA LARA00ii 63 L 7F 0070 L 1M 058 L 7F0 65 L 7F 059 L 1M 071*L 7F

If MY MAITEs next run was 1m2f at Lingfield you would expect him to produce a rating in the mid 70s. Conversely on his next outing KINABALU will probably return a figure around the fifty mark.

THREE TIME IMPROVERS
This title can be misleading because the horse may only have improved twice. The criteria is that a horse has three consecutively improving speed figures. For example PRINCE PROSPECT 67 65 57. When a horse produces this sequence how will it fare in its next race? Like me you would probably expect a further improvement in the majority of cases. However you will probably be as surprised as I was to find out this was not the case. An American study showed that only 25% continued to improve, 4% repeated their previous performance and a whopping 71% produced a lower figure.
These statistics are depressing to say the least. I was hoping they would provide a valuable pointer to future winners. However that particular study was carried out in America where they have much more racing on many differing tracks. How would the figures stack up in this country with limited racing and only three courses.
After carrying out the same research on our 3554 horses I found 622 occasions when this pattern occurred. The question was, on their next run would these horses fare any better than their American counterparts. Sadly the answer was, not a chance. They did even worse. The outcome was devastating. Of the 622 horses in the sample the results were as follows :-

143 IMPROVED 23%
19 0RAN THE SAME 3%
460 RETURNED LOWER FIG 74%

Of the 143 horses who continued to improve only 22 of them won (15%). And that is only a miserable 3.5% of the 622 horses in the sample.
What about horses who ran up three consecutive declining figures, would they continue to deteriorate or would they perform a reverse bounce. The American study showed that 32% continued their decline, 4% ran the same figure and 64% improved. Again I looked at our 3554 horses for comparisons. On the 567 occasions where this pattern emerged :-

153 CONTINUED DECLINE 27%
180 RAN THE SAME 3%
396 IMPROVED 70%
Although 70% of horses improved following their three race decline they did not improve enough to make them worth backing.