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2. SINGLE BETS ONLY NEVER BACK E.W

I recently read an article that suggested horses should never be backed each way and that instead the whole stake should be put on to win. Apparently there is a school of thought that says, ‘if you think a horse will win why back it each way and if you don’t think it will win why back it at all.’ The article went on to suggest that in the long run straight win bets would be more profitable. I was sceptical and decided to check it out. After consulting my book I found that between November and February the previous year I had backed 52 horses at 8/1 or higher (see appendix 4). They all had good speed figures and I had fancied them to at least get into the frame. Of these 52 bets 11 were win only and 41 were each way. 12 won and 7 were placed. The total stakes were £1805. The returns were £4143 a profit of £2328 (129% of stake).

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As you can see from the above table if all 52 bets had been win only the total stakes would have remained the same but the returns would have been £5000, a profit of £3195 (176% of stake). I must admit I was surprised and next season I will be sticking to WIN only bets.

3. MINIMUM 3/1

In the original book this section recommended a 2/1 minimum price. This was based on a strike rate between 1 in 3 and 1 in 4 and virtually guaranteed a profit. This should now be revised to 5/2 or even 3/1. The reasons for this are as follows. Before the internet and exchanges arrived the rails bookmakers used the tissue price in the Racing Post as a guide when framing their opening prices. As you will see in the next two chapters during the 2002/03 winter season big priced top rated horses were readily available. The rails bookmakers were quick to embrace this new technology and are now in constant contact with the exchanges. Before any opening show they check to see what is being backed. This means any horse attracting money is spotted immediately and opens up a short price. In the past four years the average price of top rated horses has decreased considerably. The strike rate is the same but backing down to 2/1 has meant that the profit has all but disappeared.

4. ALL WEATHER ONLY

Speed figures are more accurate with a smaller pool of horses and fewer tracks. In 2007 there will be a record number of race meetings with a further increase planned for 2008. This is not so bad if you use one of the many speed figure services, but if you want to produce your own it would be easier to start with the Winter All Weather. In the past this has meant three tracks and most days only one meeting. This is set to change this winter with five tracks and evening racing. More hectic than usual granted but still more manageable than the summer.

5. RACES TO SWERVE

Ignore races where horses are switching between turf and grass or were most of the horses have no AW form at all. Also avoid distances of 1m4f or more. Speed figures work better in races up to a mile. Races run over longer distances are harder to work out as they often become tactical. Slow run races result in low, misleading speed figures.

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